With both sides outwardly confident they hold the upper hand and their positions far apart, there is no obvious off-ramp in sight, even asIransubmitted afresh proposalto restart negotiations. Trump quickly rejected it on Friday.
For the US president and his Republican Party, the implications of a continued impasse are grim.
An unresolved conflict would likely mean the global economic fallout, including high US gasoline prices, will persist, putting further pressure on Trump, whose poll numbers are falling, and darkening Republican candidates' prospects ahead of Novembers midterm congressional elections.
Trump orders blockade of Hormuz Strait after Iran talks fail to reach deal
Unmet goals
Those costs highlight a deeper problem: the war has failed to achieve many of Trump's stated goals.
While there is little doubt that waves of US and Israeli strikes heavily degradedIrans military capabilities, many of Trumps often-shifting war objectives - from regime change to shuttingIran's path to a nuclear weapon - remain unfulfilled.
Fears for a more protracted deadlock have grown since Trumpcalled offa trip by his negotiators toIslamabadlast weekend and then dismissed anIranian offer to halt the war, suspended since 8 April under a ceasefire agreement.
Tehranproposed setting aside discussion of its nuclear program until the conflict is formally ended and a deal is reached on reopening theStrait of Hormuz. That was a non-starter for Trump, who has demanded the nuclear issue be dealt with at the outset.
A woman holds a poster depicting Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, during a rally in Tehran, Iran, on 29 April, 2026.
There was a glimmer of hope on Friday when state news agency IRNA reported Tehran had sent a revised proposal through Pakistani mediators, causing a drop in global oil prices that had risen sharply sinceIraneffectively closed the strait. Trump told reporters he was "not satisfied" with the offer, though he said there were ongoing contacts by phone.
A failure to wrest the vital oil-shipping waterway fromIranian control at the conclusion of the conflict would be a major blow to Trumps legacy.
Hed be remembered as the US president who made the world less safe, said Laura Blumenfeld, aMiddle Eastexpert atJohns Hopkins Universityin Washington.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales saidIrans "desperation" is increasing due to military and economic pressure, and Trump "holds all the cards and has all the time he needs to make the best deal."
Resumption of hostilities?
With his next steps uncertain and no clear endgame, Trump has in private meetings raised the prospect of aprolonged naval blockadeofIran, possibly for months more, aimed at further squeezing off its oil exports and forcing it to reach a denuclearization agreement, a White House official said on condition of anonymity.
At the same time, he has left the door open to resuming military action. The US Central Command has prepared options for a "short and powerful" series of strikes as well as for taking over part of the strait to reopen it to shipping, Axios reported on Thursday.
European diplomats said their governments, whose relations with Trump have been strained by the war, expect the current situation withIranto persist.
"It's hard to see how this will end soon," said one, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Iranhas remaineddefiant.
It has exerted powerful leverage against the US and its allies, triggering an unprecedented energy supply shock by choking off shipping in the strait, where tanker traffic flowed freely before the war, carrying a fifth of the worlds oil.
Analysts sayIranwill be emboldened knowing that it will have this weapon at its disposal even after the war.
Iranhas realised that, even in a weakened state, it can shut off the Strait at will, said Jon Alterman of theCenter for Strategic and International StudiesinWashington. That knowledge leavesIranstronger than it was before the war."
Trickle-down impacts of Middle East war, from pistachios, to copper, to leather
Uranium stockpile remains
Trump - who took office promising to avoid entanglement in foreign interventions - has also failed to achieve his main stated aim in attackingIranon 28 February: to close off its path to a nuclear weapon.
A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to remain buried following US and Israeli airstrikes last June and could be recovered and further processed into bomb-grade material.Iransays it wants the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for what it says are peaceful purposes.
Wales, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump had "met or surpassed" all military objectives, including action "to ensure thatIrancan never have a nuclear weapon."
Another of Trumps declared war goals forcingIranto stop support for proxy groups such as LebanonsHezbollah, Yemens Houthis and PalestinianHamasalso remains unmet.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, in congressional testimony, denied the conflict had become a quagmire," despite Trump having initially predicted it would be over in four to six weeks.
Renewed peace talks are unlikely to yield a quick resolution, given the large gaps.
Though Trump has said he will accept nothing less than a long-term solution to the threat posed byIran, he has at times shown signs of seeking an exit plan from an unpopular conflict.
At the request of Trumps aides, intelligence agencies are studying howIranwould respond if he declared aunilateral victoryand pulled back, US officials have told Reuters.
Independent analysts say Tehran would interpret that as its own strategic success for having survived the military onslaught.
At the same time, European andGulfArab diplomats have expressed concern that Trump might eventually agree to a flawed deal that would allow a woundedIranto remain a threat.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ahead of an exceptional meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on 28 April, 2026.
Risk of 'frozen conflict'
With negotiations deadlocked, some analysts have suggested the war could devolve into a frozen conflict that would defy a permanent solution. That could prevent Trump from significantly scaling down forces in the Middle East.
The US is already paying new strategic costs.
Those include fractures with traditional European allies, who were not consulted before Trump went to war.
He has harshly criticisedNATO partnersfor not sending their navies to help open the strait, and in the past week spoke about possibly drawing down troops inGermany, Spain and Italy.
Trump says US may cut troops in Germany as Iran row rages
Trump also must deal with a more hardlineIranian leadership, dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that took over after US-Israeli strikes killed several figures, including Supreme Leader AyatollahAli Khamenei.
The president's call at the start of the conflict for theIranian people to overthrow their rulers has gone unheeded.
At home, Trump is under pressure to end a war that has dragged his approval rating to the lowest level of his term 34 percent, according to aReuters/Ipsos polland spikedgasoline pricesabove $4 a gallon ahead of the midterms, in which Republicans are at risk of losing control ofCongress.
A second White House spokeswoman, Taylor Rogers, said Trump was committed to maintaining his party's congressional majority and that high gasoline prices were only "short-term disruptions" that would be overcome as the conflict subsides.
TheIranians, however, are mindful of Trumps domestic troubles and may be prepared to wait him out, but the question remains how long they can stave off economic calamity.
Iranisnt fractured or folding, its playing for time, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at theCenter for International Policythink tank in Washington, wrote on X.
(Reuters)
Originally published on RFI
